Too many deaths are to be expected

Mathematical modelling has a role to play in predicting deaths but as with all modelling it needs to be used very carefully. We have seen modellers who make the assumption that everyone was susceptible to covid then producing dramatic graphs that show everyone would catch it. We’ve also seen modellers who assumed masks worked then producing dramatic graphs of how they could minimise covid. Of all modelling crimes, putting your conclusion into your assumptions is surely the worst.

Read More