It gets worse before it gets better

Worrying phenomenon known about since 2020

Vaccination results in a rise in covid infection rates for the first week or two before there is a fall. HART was attacked in March for stating that questions should be asked about the correlation between vaccine rollouts and increased covid mortality. Plentiful anecdotal evidence exists of an increased risk of infection after vaccination. The Gibraltar government recorded cases even in those who had tested negative just prior to vaccination. Numerous care homes reported outbreaks within days of vaccination taking place including here, here, here and here.

SAGE commented on the phenomenon in March 2021 but have ignored it since:

“The observation that a significant number of people developing [sic] symptoms within a few days of a first dose may suggest some behaviour change following vaccination (and before immunity has developed). It is important therefore that communications around vaccination reinforce the need for safe behaviours to be maintained. It may also be the case that some infections occur during the end-to-end process of vaccination (i.e. including journeys to and from vaccination). The low number of people in the study with symptom onset in the days prior to vaccination is expected, as most people with symptoms would not attend their vaccination appointments. Many of those included in the study would have been vaccinated at a time when community prevalence was very high.”

Leaving aside the correlations on a regional or country level and the anecdotes, there are plenty of studies that show the problem. The evidence that covid infections increase after vaccination is well established, for example.

  1. The original Pfizer trial stated that in the first week after vaccination there were 40% more cases of suspected covid in the vaccinated than in those given the placebo (409 vs 287). They make the claim:

    “It is possible that the imbalance in suspected COVID-19 cases occurring in the 7 days post vaccination represents vaccine reactogenicity with symptoms that overlap with those of COVID-19.”

    Of course they could have answered that question by ensuring that everyone with suspected covid was properly tested. In a separate submission they admit that 1 in 7 (699 people) who had suspected covid in the first 7 days after the second dose had no test result. They claim this number was small but there were only 910 positive test results over the course of the entire study. Why did they not ensure sufficient testing during this period?
  1. A Danish paper, published in February 2021, showed a 40% increased risk of covid in the first two weeks among vaccinated care home residents, despite not vaccinating in homes with outbreaks. They made no comment on the cause of this effect. 
  1. Also in February 2021, a paper from Pfizer and the Israeli Ministry of Health was leaked showing an increased rate in the first week after vaccination. The final published paper did not mention this period at all.
  1. A separate paper looking at Israeli data stated:

    Surprisingly, daily incidence increases strongly after vaccination till about day 8, approximately doubling. Whilst it is not possible to know for certain why this may be the case, there have been concerns that people may believe they are protected as soon as they have had or (indeed have scheduled) their first injection and so start engaging in risky behaviour more than previously.” 
  1. In March 2021, PHE published a paper which was later accepted by the BMJ, showing the odds of testing positive in the first 9 days was 48% higher than in the unvaccinated. They said:

    “During the first few days after vaccination (before an immune response would be anticipated), the odds of vaccinated people testing positive was higher, suggesting that vaccination was being targeted at those at higher risk of infection.”

    There seems to be confusion here about the difference between people who are at greater risk of a poor outcome as opposed to people who are at greatest risk of catching the infection. The two should be opposite groups given all the attempts at shielding.

    They go on to say:

    “An alternative explanation that vaccination caused an increased risk of covid-19 among those vaccinated before 4 January through some immunological mechanism is not plausible as this would also have been seen among those vaccinated from 4 January, as well as in clinical trials and other real world studies. Another explanation that some aspect of the vaccination event increases the risk of infection is possible, for example, through exposure to others during the vaccination event or while travelling to or from a vaccination site. However, the increase occurs within three days, before the typical incubation period of covid-19.“

    It is clear that this has been seen in clinical trials and real world studies when that period has been reported on. Mechanisms are discussed further below.
  1. In April 2021, members of SAGE published a report showing a 400% increase in symptomatic covid from before vaccination to the day of vaccination, in the hospitalised population. They say:

    “We observed an abundance of patients admitted to hospital within 7 days of vaccination (Figure 3). Discussed below are potential reasons for this trend in admissions:

    • Most vaccinated hospitalised patients were infected shortly before or around the time of vaccination, and the remainder after vaccination but before immunity had developed (immunisation). 

    • Elderly and vulnerable people who had been shielding, may have inadvertently been exposed and infected either through the end-to-end process of vaccination, or shortly after vaccination through behavioural changes where they wrongly assume they are immune.

    • An additional hypothesis, that we cannot exclude in this analysis, is that some people had recent asymptomatic COVID-19 and vaccination precipitated admission. Previously asymptomatic or pauci-symptomatic PCR positive patients may experience symptoms likened to COVID-19 symptoms including fever due to vaccination. This happens within 48 hours of the vaccination and usually resolves within 48 hours.“
  1. A separate study from Brazil, later published in the Lancet, showed a 69% higher rate of covid in vaccinated healthcare workers (HCWs) compared to the unvaccinated in the first 13 days after vaccination. The authors attributed this significantly higher rate to a change in exposure risk or testing behaviour specific to  that two week period. They say:

    “There are several possible explanations for the observed positive association: HCWs prioritised for vaccination could have been at higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 exposure than those who were vaccinated later; HCWs were unlikely to receive a positive test in the time immediately preceding their vaccination (reverse causation); or recently vaccinated individuals only sought testing for more severe symptoms, which were more likely to be due to SARS-CoV-2”

    The only evidence they provide to support these contentions are links to the speculations of the authors from the studies listed as 2 and 5 above.
  1. In a study of the US nursing home population published in July 2021 the results were reported from day one after vaccination. After excluding the day of vaccination, where those who tested positive were less likely to then be vaccinated, the percentage testing positive in the first 14 days was 4.3% among the vaccinated but only 3.5% among the unvaccinated. Over the course of the whole study, from 17th December 2020 to 31st March 2021, 1,249 out of 18,242 vaccinated residents had covid (6.8%) compared to 270 out of 3,990 unvaccinated residents (6.8%).
  1. A paper from Qatar, published in October 2021, noted negative vaccine effectiveness in the days following the first dose – i.e. higher rates of covid in the vaccinated:

    “Vaccine effectiveness for participants at 0 to 13 days after the first dose was just below zero, possibly suggesting a negative bias. However, this has also been observed elsewhere for both Covid-19 vaccines and other vaccines. This effect may reflect differences in social behavior at or after vaccination or an immunologic effect.”

Many if not most studies deliberately omit any reference to the first two weeks after vaccination. The excuse that vaccination could not have an effect before 14 days has been used to ignore this period, or worse, to group these infections with the unvaccinated data making the post 14 day period look more favourable. As it takes a little while for vaccination to provide protection, many researchers have declined to report on that period or only do so after making significant adjustments to the raw data.

In summary, the evidence of an increased infection rate in the first two weeks after vaccination is well established. The published literature attribute this phenomenon to:

  1. Engaging in risky behaviour after vaccination
  2. Targeting of vaccination to those most at risk of becoming infected
  3. The vaccination process results in increased exposure risk
  4. An immunological effect

Claims of a change in behaviour after vaccination are not backed up by any evidence of such a change. It is highly unlikely that care home residents had any opportunity to change their behaviour over the winter, and yet the phenomenon was seen in this population too. The increased risk in the first week or two after vaccination is of the order of 40-60%. To put that in context, healthcare workers had a 48% higher rate of infection compared to other workers. The idea that a change in behaviour in the elderly for that period presented the equivalent risk as working as a healthcare worker does not withstand scrutiny. The possibility of vaccination centres being superspreader sites is worthy of consideration. It would have been quite a series of coincidences for the post vaccination care home outbreaks all to have been caused by infected vaccinators entering the homes. However, the lack of incubation period between the vaccination event and the increased infection risk, suggests there is something else happening. 

A recent paper from Israel of nearly 500 women under 61 who were followed up after vaccination showed five of them developed Shingles in the first two weeks after vaccination. Shingles is caused by the Chicken Pox virus which lies dormant all our lives unless the immune system is suppressed and it reignites in one part of the body. The rate of infections was fifty times higher than would be expected in that population over that time course. This is evidence of the immune system being unable to keep viruses in check after vaccination. Perhaps the immune system is so tied up with dealing with the vaccine effects that there is no capacity for it to carry out its normal function.

There remains debate around what causes the higher rates immediately after vaccination, but the fact that this occurs is not disputed. 

During spring 2021, vaccination continued yet cases fell. This may be because only a subpopulation is highly susceptible to each variant and once the susceptible population has been infected there is a reprieve until a new variant arrives. The increased rates after vaccination may have sped up this process, indicated by covid deaths in the United Kingdom, represented by the area under the curve, being similar to the EU but with an earlier distribution during the vaccine rollout

The idea that a vaccination could increase the risk of the very infection it is meant to be preventing is such a contradiction. It is a scandal that the clear evidence has been ignored.

Please follow and like us:
Visit Us