The scandal of excess death reporting (or lack thereof)

Imagine the noise if the unvaccinated were the ones dying….

In stark contrast to the 2020 relentless daily death counts, there has been a virtual media black-out on excess deaths since the vaccine rollout. 

Waves of excess mortality were followed by a brand new medical product being rolled out to entire populations globally and then the excess deaths went up stepwise. Leaving aside for a moment that no proper follow-up was put in place, no pharmacovigilance, no monitoring of the group that chose not to have the injections, we are left with having to use our mathematical minds to prove that something very unsettling is happening which certainly won’t remain hidden forever. Death is not ambiguous. 

If most of the excess deaths were in the unvaccinated group of the population, this would be a brilliant indicator of the amazing value of the ‘safe and effective’ injections. The media has had a clear editorial line for decades: “thou shalt not increase vaccine hesitancy.” The underlying quasi religious assumption is that any such hesitancy would be ‘catastrophic’ for society’s health. If, after the jab rollout, the unvaxxed were dropping like flies, you can bet your bottom dollar that the media jackals would be promoting this in lavish technicolour centrefolds. “As Jane drew her last breath, her final whispered words were, ‘I wish I’d just got the damned vaccine’”... and so on and so forth. The data would have been repeatedly promulgated ad nauseam, to prove what fools the unvaccinated were and how brilliant the vaccines are. But this is not what is happening, because it would be an outright lie. So instead, we have radio silence on the topic of excess deaths, to avoid uncomfortable questions being asked. 

Key to understanding what is happening is in realising that the vast majority of those at most risk of dying have been vaccinated. Therefore, patterns in the overall population reflect what is happening among that majority. It is almost impossible for the minority unvaccinated group to be responsible for such an increase in mortality.

To use an analogy, imagine if 90% of cars were given a new device claimed not only to be effective at preventing extra accidents but also super safe. Afterwards, there’s a 10% overall rise in car accidents from 100 a month to 110. If all the extra accidents were happening in the 10% of unaltered vehicles that would mean that among this group were the 10 accidents that represent the background rate in 10% of the population plus the extra 10 accidents. That would imply the accident rate had doubled in the cars that had not been altered. If, however, the new innovation was responsible, then the 10 extra accidents would be added to the 90 background accidents in the altered group, which would make for an overall increased rate of 11%. The latter scenario is much more likely and is much easier to believe, mathematically speaking. 

Thinking of that analogy, let’s look at what has happened to deaths after the vaccine rollout. Take the 50-64 year age cohort as an example. From July 2022-Sept 2023, there were 12.5% more deaths than expected in this group, some of which were attributed to covid. Even excluding excess deaths that were blamed on covid, there were still 8.8% more deaths than expected in this age group. If these deaths were happening to the unvaccinated (because they hadn’t received the miracle drug), the mortality rate would have had to have doubled in that group for eighteen months straight. To put that into context, the excess from March 2020 to December 2021 (during the height of BBC daily reporting on excess deaths) was 19% higher than baseline average. 

This is a rather mathematically complicated way of saying that the deaths are clearly not happening predominantly in the unvaccinated cohort because mathematically speaking, it just doesn’t add up as a possible scenario. 

Table 1: Percentage increase in deaths (July 2022-Sept 2023) by age group if all excess were in vaccinated vs unvaccinated populations. First two columns are for all cause deaths and the second two exclude deaths blamed on covid.

For the over 75 year olds the situation is the most ridiculous. Many old people have already died in excess in recent years, so now we ought to be seeing a deficit in deaths in this group. If there are extra deaths, they first have to make up for this deficit before they can count as “excess” deaths. If we assume the excess in among the vaccinated then the excess is indeed small at 5% for all cause deaths. However, if we attribute those excess deaths to the unvaccinated then that population is dying at three times the expected rate! Even if we exclude all deaths blamed on covid the unvaccinated would still have to be dying at double the expected rate. Why? What’s killing them?

Where’s the outcry?

Where are the weekly press conferences and the demand that we must make any sacrifice in order to save even one life?

Looked at in this way it is clear that the actual problem must lie in unexpected deaths among the vaccinated population.

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