Covid-19 Response and Excess Deaths

On 18th April, Andrew Bridgen finally secured a full length debate on this vexed topic, the original text of which is available here. Full length in theory, but shortly before the debate was due to begin, the deputy Speaker told him he only had 15 minutes instead of the 30 minutes he had prepared. After a complaint to the Speaker’s office the compromise was 20 minutes.

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Too many deaths are to be expected

Mathematical modelling has a role to play in predicting deaths but as with all modelling it needs to be used very carefully. We have seen modellers who make the assumption that everyone was susceptible to covid then producing dramatic graphs that show everyone would catch it. We’ve also seen modellers who assumed masks worked then producing dramatic graphs of how they could minimise covid. Of all modelling crimes, putting your conclusion into your assumptions is surely the worst.

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Death notices tell a different Covid story

Members of HART were struck by this analysis from Dr Simon and have published it here with his permission: It is a very common practice to write a death notice in New Zealand after a loved one has passed away. This practice is so common in New Zealand that frequently more death notices get published through Legacy.com than the number of deceased, as some people publish more than one death notice for the family member that passed away.

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How not to handle a data leak

A New Zealand health ministry employee was arrested for leaking records on vaccination status and death from the government database. He faces up to seven years in prison. The government admits that there has been no privacy breach as the data was anonymised yet, by arresting him they have confirmed the veracity of the data and implied they do not want the public seeing it.

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Deaths of Scottish babies

Public Health Scotland demonstrated a significant increase in neonatal deaths (in the first month of life) in 2021 but refused to investigate whether it was related to the vaccine because such an analysis “whilst being uninformative for public health decision making, had the potential to be used to harm vaccine confidence”. 

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Trends in Excess Deaths 

All our readers will be aware that on October 20th, Andrew Bridgen managed finally to secure a debate on the Excess mortality which is occurring in the UK and across highly vaccinated countries in every continent. In the run up to the debate, HART joined in an open letter to all MPs urging them to attend and similar appeals were made by other groups most of which fell on deaf ears.

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