When studying the effect of vaccination or even the proportion of the population who have been vaccinated it is critical to know the size of the total population. Measuring an entire country’s population is a hugely difficult undertaking.
News
Who exactly are the ‘unvaccinated’?
The media continues to push a hate campaign towards the unvaccinated – but who are they? Every unvaccinated person will have their own reasons for making this decision about their health. Only they can understand what is best for their individual circumstances and that is how it should be.
‘Long covid’ or ‘long lockdown’?
The concern is that the huge focus on covid-19 may mean symptoms due to other diseases or indeed due to loneliness and anxiety, are being wrong
Hang on a minute…
On 15 November Boris Johnson gave a press conference urging everyone to get their booster shots. This has caused much confusion in the minds of the thus far ‘fully vaccinated’.
FULL ARTICLE: What is real-world vaccine effectiveness?
There are places where measuring the population is much easier than the UK. For example, it is much easier to measure the size of a smaller population especially in a confined space such as on an island like Gibraltar. That is why soaring case rates in Gibraltar, which claims to have vaccinated almost every adult, is causing such concern.
Can we rely on NIMS (National Immunisation Management Service) figures?
Changing the total population estimate results in large swings in the estimate of ‘case’ rates in the unvaccinated. Given the inability to be accurate within a few percentage points, and the uncertainty about whether the inaccuracies are overestimating or underestimating the total, the differences between populations is not as informative as the trend in rates within each of the populations.
FULL ARTICLE: One in 20 people vaccinated since April had to be added to the NIMS database
To understand case, hospitalisations and death rates in the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations it is essential to know how many people there are in each.
Why do those on the political left enthusiastically support the COVID-19 restrictions?
The musician Billy Bragg recently disclosed his reason for wearing a mask: ‘I don’t want anyone here to think that I’m a Tory’.
Government review of care home winter plan based on terrible error or deliberate lie about successes last year
Government has published a winter plan for care homes with plans for interventions for this winter in care homes including ipads as a proposal to replace human contact. The entire document is based on the premise that interventions in winter prevented deaths in care homes based on claims made in a review of last year’s winter plan. No data supports this notion. The Government report is either based on a terrible error or a deliberate lie.
FULL ARTICLE: Claims of success in protecting the vulnerable in care homes are based on deceptive data
Government has published a winter plan for care homes with plans for interventions for this winter in care homes including ipads as a proposal to replace human contact. The entire document is based on the premise that interventions in winter prevented deaths in care homes based on claims made in a review of last year’s winter plan. No data supports this notion.
A Grandee Exits Stage Left
It is now two weeks since Sir Jeremy Farrar quit the UK Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE). Judging by numerous comments from the readership of a recent article in the Telegraph, many are not sad to see him go.
Should children be vaccinated against COVID-19?
HART would contest that it is unethical to ask children to take a vaccine to boost herd immunity or to offset political decisions such as school closures, at a stage when the drug trials have still to be completed. Policy makers would do well to re-read the Universal Declaration on Bioethics and Human Rights and to follow the authors’ guidance to ‘weigh up the risks and benefits with caution and to proceed with care’.
How many young people have had recent infections?
UKHSA reports numbers who test positive for antibodies by age. This shows a rise of over 4% in the under 40s; 2% in the 40-69 year olds and an insignificant rise in the over 70s. Using those figures and ONS mid-2020 estimates for England would give an overall increase of 2.8%. UKHSA are therefore assuming that 9% of under 17 year olds have seroconverted in the same time period.
How many people think they have had Covid?
Knowing how many people have had Covid will provide a benchmark for estimating how long Covid will be with us. Other factors such as the extent of prior immunity and the number of people who will be susceptible to future variants are also needed before attempting to predict the future course of the virus, but knowing how many have natural immunity (after infection) is an important first step.
7.5 million people would need to disappear for vaccine to work as claimed
It is time for some honesty about the lack of effectiveness with regards to preventing infection and an end to vaccine coercion. Vaccination may provide temporary benefit to the individual but it has not been shown to benefit the wider community.
NHS vaccine mandates would cause staff shortages this winter
The logic of mandating vaccines in the NHS is hard to fathom, particularly given mandates for care home staff are due to come into force on 11th November and may also affect at least 10% of care workers in a sector already facing critical staff shortages.
UKHSA is policing mathematical concepts
Public Health England have been replaced by the UK Health Security Agency and the new agency has already made changes in what data is reported but moreover trying to police what people do with it.
Following the Science or the Silence?
HART has recently covered concerns about censorship. Some is more subtle, for example the self-censorship of the JCVI, who last week simultaneously published minutes from all meetings held from May to July.
